GOS4M - HERMES

GOS4M-HERMES

By the use of a CTM emulator, it is possible to reduce Hg Anthropogenic emission from 12 source regions and 11 different industrial sectors (De Simone et al. 2020)

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Mercury Analysis Dashboard

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About the GOS4M Knowledge Hub

The GOS4M Knowledge Hub (GOS4M-KH) is an integrated multi-model and multi-domain computational platform designed for scientists, decision-makers, and citizens to discover, analyze, and understand information about mercury (Hg) contamination impacts on the Earth system and human health across various regions and time periods.

GOS4M-KH enables evaluation of the effectiveness of national measures to reduce Hg contamination, providing insights into Hg fate from sources to receptors, and future estimates of policy-related costs. The platform incorporates analyses of atmospheric model outputs, bio-geochemical ocean simulations, and ecological models to estimate Hg uptake in food webs.

Key macro-indicators include Hg bioaccumulation in biological endpoints (such as fish at upper trophic levels) and Hg concentrations in air and precipitation. Long-term trends of these indicators help assess the effectiveness of mitigation measures and estimate associated socio-economic costs.

DEPOSITION CHANGES

Bar charts visually compare the Hg depositions resulting from the current Hg emission scenario (Business as Usual) with those resulting from Hg emission reductions (New Scenario) for both Land and Ocean receptors. The inputs from the lateral bars are passed to the statistical engine that calculates in real-time the resulting change (%) in Hg depositions. If a reduction is statistically significant (at 95% confidence level) the name of the receptor becomes bold.

Hg Deposition - Lands

Hg Deposition - Oceans

Hg deposition changes are used as input for a six-box biogeochemical model adapted from Selin, 2014 . The model is run in real-time to calculate the perturbation of the Hg biogeochemical cycle over a period of 38 years. The model calculates the deposition of Hg over all oceans and the Hg concentration within ocean layers due to all Hg type (anthropogenic, natural and legacy) sources. Plots show the New Scenario compared to the Business As Usual and Deep-Green Scenario, the latter representing a drastically 100% reduction of emission in all source regions.

Scenarios of Hg Depositions over Oceans

Scenario of Hg Burden within Intermediate Oceans

BIOTA MODEL

The concentration of total Hg in biota is calculated, as variation (%) respect to the current value, from Hg burden within global ocean compartments as simulated by BioGeoChemical Model adapting the approach proposed by Schaefer et al., 2020

Hg IN BIOTA - Variation % (Years)

COST MODEL

This section presents a first rough calculation of the direct costs associated with the Hg emission reduction. The assessment is done by considering the estimated average “cost effectiveness” for industrial sectors and by regions, in terms of money spent for kg of atmospheric Hg emissions abatement obtained, Reference is made to the study of the European Commission “Cost effectiveness of options for a global legally binding instrument on mercury”